Phase 1 · before 0'
The pre-match estimate
- Expected goals for each side, built from both teams' recent results in every competition and weighed by the strength of each opponent.
- Domestic league tables, pulled towards the league average while the sample is still small.
- League-strength coefficients, so a cup tie between clubs from different leagues is measured on one scale.
- The last few results and home advantage, which drops out at a neutral-venue final.
Locked
Fixed at kick-off. The first point on the curve is this estimate, and it never moves afterwards.